PostedbypatzekonNovember19,2012-1:26pm
TheUnitedStatesconsumed18.8millionbarrelsperday(MMbd)ofpetroleumproductsduring2011,makingustheworld'slargestpetroleumconsumer.TheUnitedStateswasthirdincrudeoilproductionat5.7MMbd.ButcrudeoilalonedoesnotconstituteallU.S.petroleumsupplies.Significantgainsoccur,becausecrudeoilexpandsintherefiningprocess,liquidfueliscapturedintheprocessingofnaturalgas,andwehaveothersourcesofliquidfuel,includingbiofuels.Theseadditionalsuppliestotaled4.6MMbdin2011.
Letmeparsethisquote.
First,let'slookatthehistoryofoilproductionintheU.S.,showninthechartbelow.Theverticalaxisisscaledwithaunitofpower,exajoules(EJ)peryear,veryclosetoquadrillionBTUs(quads)peryear.ToconvertfromEJ/yeartomillionsofbarrelsofcrudeoilperday(MMbopd),dividetheverticalaxisbyroughlytwo,so20EJ/yearisroughlyequalto10MMbopd.
Now,let'slookattherefinerygainsinthesecondchart.Thesegainsarisebecausepetroleumproductsareusuallylessdensethanthecrudestheyaremadefrom.Therefore,refinerygainsarenotreallyareplacementofimportedcrudeoil,anddemonstrateonlythatsince1993,theU.S.refininghasbeenmovingtowardsheaviercrudeoilfeedstocks.
Insummary,ofthe4.6millionbarrelsoftheother"oil"producedin2011,1.1MMbopdwererefinerygains,andanother0.6MMbopdwastheequivalentvolumeofoilcorrespondingtotheproductionofroughly0.9MMbpdofethanol.Biodieselproductionwasinthenoise.IfearthatEIAsimplyaddedvolumesofthevariousfuelswithoutconvertingthemtooilequivalentsbasedonacommonoildensityandheatingvalue.Therestoftheother"oil",2.9or2.6millionbarrelsofoilequivalent(againIdonotknowhowEIAmadetheirconversions)werenaturalgasplantliquidsandleasecondensate.Alloftheseliquidsaresignificantlylessdensethancrudeoil,andaproperconversionlowerstheirvolumecontributionby25percent.
Needlesstosay,refinerygainsdonotinjectnewenergyintotheU.S.economy,justaddvolume.Also,propaneandbutanearenotcrudeoil,andethanolisnotahydrocarbon.Theonlyhardnumberhere,5.7MMbopdofcrudeoilproductionissomethingtowritehomeabout.ThislevelofproductionrequiresanincredibleamountofnewtechnologyandtechnicalskillsthatareavailableonlyintheU.S.Mydepartmentgraduateseachyearabout150petroleumengineersofalllevels,whomakethishugeeffortsuchasmashingsuccess.Theirstartingsalariesareinexcessofthree-fourtimesthenationalaverageforcollegegraduates.Andtheyallhavejobs.
Inconclusion,Russiaisusingsimilartechnologytoincreasetheirrateofcrudeoilproductiontoover11MMbopd,andSaudiArabiaisbarelyhanginginat9-10MMbopd.Boththesecountriesalsoproducelargevolumesofleasecondensatesandnaturalgasplantliquids.TherateofU.S.crudeoilproductionisalittlemorethan1/2ofeitherofthesetworates,andwearenoRussiaorSaudiArabiawhenitcomestoproducingoilperunittime.Butthisisjustfine,solet'sstopdeludingourselveswithsuchtenacity.
Inthenextblog,Iwilltalkaboutthevarioustechniquesofdenyingexistenceofpeakoil(orclimatechange,oranythingelsewefearordonotlike).
P.S.So,didImissanythinginmydiscussionoftheEIAquoteatthetopofthisblogThinkcarefully...Yes,Idid.
In2011,weconsumed18.8MMbpdofpetroleumproducts,lessby1.6MMbpdthanourconsumptionofpetroleumproductsin2005.Withlesscashinpocket,lessdriving,andmoreefficientcars,wehavedestroyeddemandforalmostasmuchofrealcrudeoilasallotherimaginary"oils"quotedbyEIAanddutifullypropagatedthroughthecluelessmediadom.
Whyisn'tthisachievementfront-pagenewsWefinallyuselesscrudeoil!Wearemoreefficient!Thisincrediblenewsisevidentlynotassexyasmakingupimaginary"oil"tobeonparwiththeSaudis.Havewegonemad!Itakeitback:Havewestumbledevendeeperintothedestructiveimperialmadnessthathasinfectedusforthelast11years
Despitetheobviousinsanityofthelastsentence,Isay:Betterlatethannever,dearEurope,andmuchbetterthantheU.S.A.,whichseemstohaveapolicyofacceptingpoliticaldonationsfrommegaagriculturalcompaniesandallkindsofothercompanies,ratherthanhavinganenergypolicy.
TheU.S.willincreaseitsproductiontoabout23millionbarrelsadayin10yearsfromabout18millionbarrelsadaynow,theIEApredicts.
IhavenoideawhatIEApredicts,butIsurelyknowthatthisnumberisincorrect,ifitimpliescurrentproductionofliquidhydrocarbonsintheU.S.A.
Well,maybelikethatLeonardCohensonggoes,'everybodyknows'.So,assomeoneelse--perhapsmanyothers--oncesuggestedwedo,manyofusjust'playthegame','playpretend'.Ifwedidn't,WallStreetwouldcrashovernightorsomething...MaybeStevenChuorTarielMorrigansaidthat.Ifyouplaypretend,thecrashwillbelesssevereandeveryonewillhavetimetoprepare,sosometheorygoes...Well,thatseemsaboutasrationalastherestofit.
'Civilizationistoobigtofail'.Forgethistory,makethatyourmantra.Justkeeprepeatingitoverandovertoyourselfanditwillallworkout.Butyouhavetobelieveit.VisualizethosehydrocarbonlakesonTitanifithelps.
Andgetbackinyourcarandgotowork.Earnyoursalary,payyourtaxes,mortgage,mowyourlawn,dealwiththebank,etc.,andplaythegame.
Atthattime,DavidFridley,anexpertonoileconomics,workedunderChu.Inaninterviewgivenin2009,Fridleyclaims,"[Chu]wasmyboss...Heknowsallaboutpeakoil,buthecan'ttalkaboutit.Ifthegovernmentannouncedthatpeakoilwasthreateningoureconomy,WallStreetwouldcrash.Hejustcan'tsayanythingaboutit."ItisinterestingtonotethatChubasedhisprojectionsforpeakoilonthecalculationsofColinCampbell,anexpertoilindustrygeologist,whosupposedlybasedhisestimatesontheconfidentialdataoftheconsultingfirmInformationHandlingServices(IHS)...ThedataandestimatesofIHSontheglobaloilreservesaresignificantlylessthanthosepublishedinthepublicdomain...~TarielMorrigan,"PeakEnergy,ClimateChange,andtheCollapseofGlobalCivilization:TheCurrentPeakOilCrisis"
Regardingrefinerygains:
Whenyoutakealonghydrocarbonchainmoleculefromaheavycrudebatch,thenseparateitintotwosmallermolecules(lighterliquid)youneedacoupleofhydrogenatomstoreplacetheC-Cbondthathasbeenbroken.Thishydrogenusuallycomesfromnaturalgas(CH4),sorefinerygainsareNOTFREE.Theyhavetakenenergyfromnaturalgasandembeddeditintheprocessedcrude.Besides,theheattodrivethisprocessalsocomesfromnaturalgas.
EIAclearlydoesnotdeductenergyfromnaturalgasaccountwhensayingrefineryliquidproductionincreasedduetorefinerygains.Wearetakingfromoneenergyaccountandtransferringtoanother(withsomeloss).Onanetenergybasisrefinerygainsareanetloser.
Ihaveametaphor:Creatingaleakinaboattosealanotherleak.
LeakWhatleak(Hiddenbehindbulkhead.)
Itisallaboutnetenergyandthatishowweshouldpresentourglobalenergyproductionanduse.
NetenergyisthebestindicatorofusefulworkasittakesintoaccountthelowerEROEIratiosofnewerresourcescomingon-line.
Ifweusednetenergyinallofourargumentsitwouldsoonbeclearthatwenowliveinanegativelyslopednetenergyproductionworld.
Astheworld'spopulationnumberscontinuetoriseandthenetenergyavailabletothatrisinghumanpopulationpercapitaiscalculated,therealpictureispainted.
Idon'tunderstandwhybothnetenergyandpopulationparameterscontinuetobeignoredHEREontheTOD!IunderstandwhytherestoftheworldignoresthesetrendsbutitseemseventhemostenlightenedfewthatliveintheTODworldarealsohesitanttoacceptthetruesituation.Ofcourse,thefurtherawaywearefromtheindustrythatprovidesourpaycheck,theeasieritistoseetheforestforthetrees.Perhapsthethoughtofthe150yearridedownthebacksideofthefossilfuelbellcurveisjusttoodepressingtothinkabout.Regardless,thetruthwillimproveourplansandpoliciesandhelpmitigatethesuffering.Notasoftlandingbutasofterlanding.
NETENERGY-POPULATIONThesearethetwomostimportantparametersintheenergydiscussion,byfar.Funnyhowrareitistoheartheirsound.
George,ifIreadyoucorrectly,yourdeath-wishappears,paradoxicallyperhaps,asabitofalive-wishmanifestovertimeasadangerouslock-in.DavidKorowizcspeaksaboutthatandofcourseIsortofsuggestitinmyfirstcommenthere--theideaofplayingthegamethatyouthencan'teasilyorsafelyoptoutof.Maybealittlelikesomemovie-versionofjoiningthemobandthentryingtoquititandhavingyourlifethreatenedifyoudo.
Accordingtohim,thedystopiaoftheWachowskiBrothers'Matrixtrilogyisalreadyhere:thetechnological-industrial'machine'isalreadyrunningtheworld,aworldwhereindividualhumansarebutinsignificantlittlecogswithbarelyanyautonomy.Nosinglehumanbeing-neitherthemostpowerfulpolitician,northemostpowerfulbusinessman-hasthepowertoreininthesystem.Theynecessarilyhavetofollowtheinexorablelogicofwhathasbeenunleashed.~GSampathonJohnZerzan
Neo:Ican'tgoback,canIMorpheus:No.Butifyoucould,wouldyoureallywantto...Weneverfreeamindonceit'sreachedacertainage.It'sdangerous,themindhastroublelettinggo...AslongastheMatrixexists,thehumanracewillneverbefree.~TheMatrix
Yournetenergypointiswelltaken.Whentakingintoaccounttheefficiency(orlackthereof)ofmostenergy-convertingmachines(35%atthetopend),andaddingthistothemix,itwouldappearwearenetlosersallthewayaround.
Themirageisproducedbyeconomics.Aslongasmoneycanbemadefromnetlossenergyschemes,theywillsomehowseemtobepractical.
It'sjustsillytosaythatNetEnergyandPopulationaresomehowmissingfromtheconversationsorthefocushere.They'vebeengoneoveragainandagain..withlongandtediousrepeatsofthesamepoints.Whilesurelytheyhavetheirproponentsandtheirskeptics..it'shardlyanunheardnoteinthisarena.
Ifyou'resayingwehaven'treachedasolidconsensusorcomeupwithaclearsolutiontoeitherpoint,wellthenletmebethefirsttowishyouluckonthequest.
Theyaresurelybothkeyaspectstoourenergypredicament,eachonewoollyandscratchyinitsownway.Whatwouldyoudoaboutthem
Sorryforbeing"silly",jokuhl,butwhenyousay,"somehowmissingfromtheconversationsorthefocushere."don'tyouthinkthatcoversjustabouttheentiregambitImean,missingisneverbeingsaidandfocusisliketheonlythingbeingsaid.RightSo,Iguessinthatcontext,Iam"silly".Itwoulddifficulttobeanythingbut!
WhatwouldIdoaboutthem
1)Notbeafraidtosaypopulationisthemostimportantparameterwhentalkingaboutresources.
2)RemindthemassesjusthowbadtheIEA'spastreportswereandhowtheyadjustthemeveryyeartobettermatchreality.Itshouldbeobviousbynowthattheywillfullydothissopeopledon'tpanicorchangetheirdreamsofconsumption.Ifwejustusedmoresimplenetenergynumbers,itwouldbefarhardertohiderealitywithconfusingandhard-to-pin-downterminology.Mostpeoplejustneedawhiffofdoubtandtheyrunwithit.
3)Alwaysbringupnetenergyasthebestindicatorofourenergysituation.NotGDPorrefinerygainsornetproductionofanyformofenergy,regardlessofformorcost.Everythingelseisjustusedasasmokescreen.
Withthatsaid,IunderstandthatthetaskofenlighteningthemassesisfutileandthathumanityhastolearnTheGreatLessonthehardway.Ionlyhopethatthefewsmallgroupsofpeople,manyofthemhereonTOD,cankeepamoreconsistentmessageofwhatisgoingon.Thenwecansay,"Well,itwasallexplainedclearlyonTOD(andotherforumsandpapers).Perhapsthatisjustbeatingadeadhorseandgetsboringsowetendtomixitupforfun.
Perhapswecouldvoteonasuggestedlistofresourcesthatpeoplecanviewthatwillgivethemthebestpictureofreality.Somethinglikeashortprogramthatcanbefollowed,stepbystep,thatlaysitoutinaclearwaythatmostofushereagreewith.Howaboutabiggreenbuttonthatsays,"Ifyouareneworneedareview,clickhere!"TheTODcurriculum.
Thenagain,perhapsjustenjoyingapeakofhumancivilizationistimebetterspent.;)
Sorryifmyretortwasoffensive,TT,butIwasrespondingtothisline..
"Idon'tunderstandwhybothnetenergyandpopulationparameterscontinuetobeignoredHEREontheTOD!"
..andtheyaresimplyNOTignoredhere.Weseecontinualappealstotheimportanceofboth.Idon'tobjecttotheirimportance,either..whileIdofindthePop.threadtobesimplywearying,withtheirregularforaysintocatcallsofEugenicsand'StalinistCulling'andsuch.Butaboveall,isthereliableresurrectionofthepleathataskswhywenevertalkaboutPopulation!
Asfarasoutreach..I'mafraidtheEconomistskeephoggingthemic's,andpeopleseemtoletthem,beingsocomfortedbythereassurancesthattheirmoneywillbesafeandsound.
Bob
IseeEROEIandpopulationbroughtupallthetimehere,maybemoreintheDrumbeat.It'sjusthardertoquantify.OfcourseeverythingcomesbacktoEROEI,that'sthewholedrivingdynamicbehindPeakOil.Andit'salsothesourceofthecurrentdisconnectbetweenthepurchasingpowerofmoneyandtheresourcesavailabletobackthatup.
AswerunoutofcheapeasyoilwithEROEIof100:1wemoveontoslowunconventionaloilwithEROEIbelow10:1.Thisisenabledonlypartiallybytechnologicalinnovation,butmostlybyhighoilprices.Andcounterintuitivelytothemainstreamunderstanding,thisactuallyunlockslotsof"new"oilthatwasn'tavailablebefore.Thisistheapparentparadoxwearewitnessingnow,exactlyaspredictedbyPeakOil"theory",whichisthataswe"runout"ofoil,oureconomicallyrecoverablefossilfuelreservesactuallygrow,butthisisonlyduetoincreasingprices.
Theproblemwiththenewunconventionaloilsourcesistheyareslowandexpensive,andthiskillsdemand.Eventuallyapeak,orplateau,isreachedinproductionrateafterwhichitdeclines.
Ofcoursethecornucopianmedialatchesontotheincreaseinrecoverablereservesfromunconventionalsourcesasevidencethattechnologywillconqueradversity,thatourreservesaregrowingfasterthanouryearlyconsumptionofthem.Thiscancontinueforcenturies,theyargue.Buttakeoilpricebackto$50andseehowmanyreserveswe'dhaveleft!
Thisincreaseinreservesizecan'tcontinueindefinitely.Eventuallygeology(orsocialcollapse)takesoverfrompriceasthepredominantparameterlimitingproductionrate.Whatthemediadoesn'ttalkaboutisthedroppingEROEIasreservesizesincrease.AsGail'striangleintheTODposttheotherdayshows,thereservesofunconventionalfossilfuelsatthebasearequitelarge.
Butitwouldhavebeenmoreeffectivetodrawthattriangledifferently,withabasethatfizzlesoutintonothing,ratherthanbeingahardlinewhichtendstosuggestataquickglancethattheyareequivalentkindsoffossilfuelsatthetopandthebottom.ButthebasehassuchalowEROEIthatatsomepointwewon'tbeabletosupportsocietyproperlyanymoreeventhoughwe'restillsittingontrillionsoftonnesoffossilfuels.Sowithoutrenewables,societyendssomewhereatthebaseofthatpyramid;whereexactly,whoknows,whichiswhythereshouldbenohardlineatthebase.
Wellthereisonethingthatissilly.Andthatistoimplythatalldifferentformsofenergyarefungible.Thatissillytothenthdegree.Youcannotflyajetplaneoncoal,orelectricityfromadam,oranythingbutpetroleumforthatmatter.
Theliquidsfuelproblemisseriousandjustpretendingwecould,likeovernight,converttoelectricityorsomethingelse,istrulysilly.Conversionswillcomeslowandhardandatgreatexpense.Andsomethingswillneverbeconverted.
RonP.
Thiswholecultureissilly,andfarworse.
Inordertochangeourways,weseemtoneedtoterrifyourselves...Iliterallycan'tstandbeingontheAmericanhighway.Tomeitisalmostlikebeinginaprisonofmadness...Drivinglikecrazypeople.WherearetheygoingAndwhyaresomanyofthemgoinginthatdirectionTheyareallfleeingsomething.Iwouldliketoinquirewhatisinthosetrucksthataretearingdowntheroad.IsitsomethingofnouseatallOrsomethingwhichispresentwhereitisgoingAndoftenIhaveseentrucks,apparentlycarryingidenticalcargo,goinginoppositedirections,cartingithereandthere.Thedriverstellmethattheyarecarryingwidgets...~BillMollison
It'snotjustaboutEROEIofcourse,butthelevelofsanity/insanitybehinditsuse.
IthinktheEIAhasbeenplayingfastandloosewiththepetroleumstatistics.Asnotedlastweek,theEIAAnnualReviewfor2010statesthattheUSproducedatotalof9,443mbbls/d,ofwhichUScrudeproductionat5,512mbbls/day(whichincludesleasecondensate),NGPL'sat2,001mbbls/dandprocessinggainof1,064mbbls/d.Thedifferenceof866mbbls/dappearstobemadeupbybiofuels.
Totalproductsuppliedissaidtohavebeen19,148mbbls/d,withimportsminusexportstotaling9,434mbbls/dofthat.Theamountofcrudeimportedwas9,163mbbls/d.Fromthesedata,thetotalcrudesuppliedtotherefinerieswas14,675mbbls/d,ofwhich62%isimported.
I'vepreviouslysuggestedthatassigningalltheprocessinggainstoUSproductionisfactuallyincorrect,insteadtheprocessinggainsresultingfromrefiningimportedcrudeshouldbeaddedtothetotalforimports.Foraroughguess,usingthefractionofcrudeimportedgivenabove,664mbbls/dshouldbesubtractedfromtheUSproductionandaddedtotheimportsideoftheaccounting.ThisrevisionreducesUSproductionto8,779mbbls/dandincreasesimportsto10,098mbbls/d,increasingthefractionimportedfrom49%to53%.
Ofcourse,theEIAmissesthewholediscussionaboutbiofuels,especiallyethanol,whichrequirealargeinputoffossilfuelstoproducethefinalproduct.TheEIAignoresthisfuelinput,showingbiofuelsasaninputtothefrontendoftherefiningprocess.Withethanolproductionnowusingabout40%oftheUScorncrop,itwouldbemoreaccuratetoconsiderthisportionoftheUSagriculturalsystemtohavebeenaddedtotheenergysupplysystemandtheenergyusedwouldthusbecomeaninternalconsumptionwhichwouldbesubtractedfromthepetroleumenergyavailabletotherestofsociety.Doingthiscalculationwouldincreasethefractionofenergyimported,whichwouldgiveamorerealisticpictureofoursituation...
E.Swanson
BlackDog,thanksfortheveryclearpictureofcurrentUSproduction,thisreallylaysitopen.
Alas,theydon'tevensubtracttheenergyinputstothefossilfuelindustries,e.g.,allthosetruckshaulingfrackingfluids.
SorryGuysbutyouhavemissedthepointonrefinerygains.Itisamirage.Rememberthe1stlawofthermodynamics.Energycannotbecreatedordestroyed.USrefinerscontinuetoquotetheirrefiningcapacitiesandproductsinbarrels-aunitofvolumewhichismeaninglessunlessadensityunitisalsoquoted.Whatyoushouldconsideristhemassunit.InALLrefineriesifyoumeasureinunitsofmassitshouldaddupto100%plusthemassofhydrogenandotherinputsaddedwhichincreasethemass.(methanolforanMTBEunitforinstance).Whenthecrudeisdistillerinthecrudeunititwillproduceanumberofproductswithdifferentdensitiesandthereforedifferentmassperbarrel.Measuretheproductsinbarrelsandyouwillhavethefollowingbarrelspertonne.
Butane.11Naphtha9Gasoline8.7Jet8Diesel7.5Vacuumgasoil6.8Fueloil6.5
Inacatcracker,withnohydrogenadditionthemassofproductsisconstantbutbecausethevolumeofLESSdenselightproductsexceedthetotalvolumeofHEAVYdenseproducts,heyprestothereisarefinerygain-involumebutnotinmass.
Somerefinerygainisduetotheadditionofhydrogenbuttypicallythisis2-3%oftheoverallmassflow.Refinerslovetosellinunitsofvolumeastheycanbenefitformthesleightofhandofsellingalessdenseandlowerenergyproducttounsuspectingdrivers.WhenenergydensityiscomparedinmassunitsthereisNOsignificantdifferencebetweengasoline,jetordiesel.Itisabout42-44MJperKgbutverydifferentinvolumeunits.Thatiswhydieselsappear30%morefuelefficientonvolumetrictermsbutinrealitythediffernceismuchless.
Anumberofpeoplehavepostedthesameargumenteachtime"refinerygains"arementioned,butitdoesnotuniversallyholdtrue.
Crackingcanbedonewithoutadditionofhydrogen,eitherbyseparatelycokingtheheavierfractionsofthecrudebeforecracking(producinglargevolumesofsolidcarbon-richpetroleumcoke,frequentlyadesirablebyproductwhichisfurtherimprovedforuseinmetallurgy),orcokingbydepositiononthecatalyticcrackerunititself(usuallysimplyburnedoffinbatches).
Inneithercasedoesanynon-crude-oilenergyinputcontributetotheincreasedvolumeofthelighthydrocarbonproducts.Indeedtheliquidproductsareofconsiderablylessmassandenergythantheinputcrudepetroleum.
Indeedtothebestofmyknowledgehydrogenationincrackingunitsisnotthenorm.Themainuseofhydrogeninpetroleumprocessingisinfacttoremovesulfurandnitrogenfromthefuel--inwhichprocessitdoesnotaddenergytothedesulfurisedfuelproduct,butrathertothesulfuricandnitricacidbyproducts.
Thehydrogenmaybegeneratedbysteamreformationofnaturalgas,butcokefromcrudeoilisalsousedasfeedstockforsteamreformation.
Yes,thankyouforclarifyingthat.I'vetriedtoclarifyitforpeoplebefore,butyourexplanationismuchbetter.Peopletendtoassumethat"refinerygain"comesfromaddinghydrogen,butthat'snotgenerallytrue-inmostcasesitcomesfromremovingcarbon,ie"coking".Refineriesprefertodoitthatwaybecausehydrogenisveryexpensive,andpetroleumcokeisavaluableproduct.Ineithercase,theEROEIismuchlessthanunity-inthecaseofcoking,itislessthanzero.
Fromachemistrystandpoint:
IftherefineryisbreakingH-CbondsinthehydrocarbonchainmoleculeandproducingfreeC(whichyoucallcoke),thentheliquidsproducedhaveshorterchainmolecules(totalnumberofcarbonsreduced).FewerH-Cbondsmeanlowerenergy.Sousingcatalyticcrackerthatproducescokeremovesenergyfromtheresultingliquid.
Myclaimoflowernetenergyintheoilproductstillstandsregardlessofrefiningmethod.Ineithercaserefinerygainsshouldnotbecountedasenergyproduction.
IdeallyEROEIforanenergysourcewouldbetheratiooffinalworkdonetothesumofallgrossenergyconsumed,e.g.foracoalpowerplantthekWhdeliveredtousersdividedbytheembodiedenergyofalltheinputs.Thiswouldtakeintoaccounttheconversionefficiencyofinputsandoutputs,e.g.thedistanceofthecoalplantrelativetothemineandfinalloadscouldbeatrade-offofenergyusedtotransportthecoalvs.theenergylostbyelectricaltransmission.FortransportationIsupposeitwouldconverttopassenger-milesperjoule,againbasedonrefinerylosses,engineefficiency,maintenance,etc.
ConsistentuseofenergyunitssuchasBarrelofoilequivalent(1BOE=1.7MWh)wouldbeastepinthatdirection.Usingvolumeisclearlyaploytoimprovethenumbers,asisthedoublecountingofbarrelsthatareusedforproduction(e.g.aBBLusedtoextract2:1shaleoilcountsas3BBL,tomake1:1ethanolcountsas2BBL).Thiswon'tfoolMotherNature.
IdeallyEROEIforanenergysourcewouldbetheratiooffinalworkdonetothesumofallgrossenergyconsumedbutthatstillleavesoutsomethingthatisverydifficulttoquantify--therelativevalueofeachunitofworktotheeconomy.Verymurkystuffthere--anditisattheheartofthedebate--goodluckfleshingthatout.ERoEIonlybecomesanissuewhenthemostcriticalunitsofwork(theywillmakethemselvesobviousastheeconomyrapidlyincreasestheirvalue)suckupalmostalltheenergyandalmostnoneislefttogooutandmultiply(itsvalue)inthisunfathomablycomplexeconomy.
Ididn'twanttogothere,butyes,criticaluseswillsoonbecomemoreobvious.EnergyproductionandtransportationwillbeprimeneedsanddeterminingtheirEROEIwillbestraightforwardandessential.
Consumerchoicessuchaslarge-screenvs.small-screentelevisions,LEDsvs.compactflourescents,Hummersvs.Tatas,couldbe"informed"byanembodiedenergytaxsimilartotheVAT.Orjustpayforthemwithenergychitsasinthetechnocrateconomy.
Well,aproblemwithEROEIisthatallenergyisnotequalincost.Henceyoucanrunarbitragebetweenvariousenergysources.Forexample,NaturalgasisprettycheaprightnowsoeventhoughtheEROEIoftarsandsoilmightnotbegreat,thefactthatthemainenergyinputischeapnaturalgasallowsthetarsandstobemadeatnottoohighofaprice.
MoneyiswhatmattersintherealworldnotEROEIasRockmanhaspointedoutmanytimes.
"MoneyiswhatmattersintherealworldnotEROEIasRockmanhaspointedoutmanytimes."
Funny,butIcouldn'tdisagreemore.IclaimthattheEROEIisallthatmattersintherealworld.Thenagain,Iguessitalldependsonthedefinitionof"realworld".Infact,inmyrealworld,moneymeansnothingcomparedtonetenergy.
Inanyfinitesystemofinterest,ifyoudon'thaveyourEROEIsethighenough,noamountofmoney,currency,gold,policy,technologyorvoodoomagicisgoingtochangetheinevitable.
Sure,shorttermsystemsoftenrelyonawayofdistributingresourcesthatareveryimportantandcanseemtoovershadowtheimportanceofnetenergy.However,inthelongterm,noneofthatmattersifthereisnotenoughnetenergytosupportthecomplexityofthesystem.Youcanbesittingonamountainofresourcesbutstarvetodeathifyoudon'thavethenetenergyneededtotransformthoseresourcesinawaythatsupportsyourowncomplexsystem.Thehigherthenetenergyyouhave,themorecomplexityyoucansupport,dependingontheotheravailableresources.
Moneyfollowsnetenergy,nottheotherwayaround.Ifthereisnotenoughnetenergy,humanswouldnothaveenoughtime,beyondfindingenoughfood,toinventmoneyasawayoffiguringoutwhattodowiththeirfreetime.
Yes,surelymoneyisanabstractionfromrealwork;ieenergy.
Weshouldbemorecorrecthere--it'saboutexergy,notenergy.Exergyisusefulenergyavailabletodowork.ThisthenincorporatestheconceptofEROEI.
HasthereverbbeenanexergykeypostonTODtoexplaintheconcept
EROEIisn'tnearlythewholestory-utilityis.
OilcanbeanenergysinkanditwillbeviabletoextractieIcan'tputcoalinmychainsaw.Anoilwellcouldbedrilledwithelectricpower,oilsandscanbeextractedwithegnaturalgasinputsandnuclearelectricity-theEROEIcouldpotentiallybenegative-butIwillstillneedliquidfuelformychainsaw.Yousee,itisnotassimpleasitappears.Ihaveneverseenitdiscussed,butIknowthattheenduseoftheoilmatterstoo-therecanbeenergygainherealsothatisnotpracticalwithotherformsofenergy-butitisnotconsideredEROEI.
Toclarify:Icanbuy2quartsofgasoline,assumeEROEIofminus10onthese2quarts,ieittookcoal,gas,electricityequaltoabout5gallonsoffueltoputthese2quartsinmyhand.Igooutonmyproperty,whichisamilefromthenearestelectricity,andcut2cordofmapletoheatmyhouse-themapleisequaltoabout280gallonsoffueloil.About2cupsofgasolineinmytractorgetsthewoodbacktomyhouse,bytheway.Strandedgas,coaletcarecheapforareason-theyarenotasuseful.EROEIappliesinaverybroadsense,clearlytheremustbeaverypositivesourceavailablesomewhere.Idon'tthinkitsasusefulaparameterasmanywouldhaveyoubelievethough,sincewearefacingacrisisofutilitymorethananything.Itiscleartomethatifwecannotfindasourceofpowerwithcomparableutility,wewillbeseekingoilthatisavailableonlyatalossofnetenergy,itwillbeprofitableinsomecasestodoso,andtherewillbeinvestmentcapitalavailable-towhatextentIdon'tknow,butitwillhappen.Wewon'tbeleftwithBAUbyanystretchoftheimaginationinthatcasethough.
I'darguethatthereisanapparentandtemporarydisconnectbetweenenergyandmoneyenabledonlybyridiculouslycheapdebt(lowinterestrates),allimposedbytheFed.Thisleadssometobelievethatmoneyiswhatmattersintherealworld(whichitcurrentlydoes),ratherthanenergy.ButthisisonlyduetotheponzischememonetarysystemI'malwaysharpingabout.Thisrubberbandisabouttosnapandthetwoconceptsofenergyandmoneywillcomebackinlinewitheachothersoon,andthiswillbeeffectedthroughacatastrophiccollapseoftheworld'sfinancialsystem.
That'salongthelinesofwhatIwasthinkingbeforereadingyourcomment.Moneyseemssomewhatdivorcedfromreality,fromnature/naturalmechanisms,land,resources,energy,labour,whatever."We"onlypretendit'smarried.Maybeit'skindofmarried,buthasaffairs,childrenfromthoseaffairsandsexually-transmitteddiseases(fractionalreserve/financialinstruments/magicmoney-potions/etc.).
Ifit's'createdoutofthinair',asitisoftendescribed,thenithaslittleorlesstodowithenergyoralotofotherthings,exceptwhereitbeginstomesswith/bumpupagainstnaturalrealityandthen"runaway'growth-house'effects"starthappening--yourrubberband.
Thesedays,whatwithfinancialcorruption,moneydoesn'tevenappeartohavemuchtodowithitsownrulesanymore.
ThegoldstandardandfractionalreserveseemquestionablejustforthosereasonsandIhavehearddiscussionsalongthelinesofmoneyneedingtobetightlybasedonenergyorlandorsomethingslikethat,orperhapsnotbeingusedatall,andusinginstead,credit,gifts,barter,trulylocal/ethicalcurrencies,and/orsimilar.
WhileIhaveahardtimeunderstandingmoneyandtryingtogivesmeabitofaheadache-(althoughsome,whomayappeartounderstandmoney,haveadubiousgraspofitseffects/dynamics)-it'syetanotherhumansystemthatcangetmiredincomplexityanddisastersofitsownkinds.
Ifeverybodyknewthefullfactsabouthowmoneyisissued,howit'sputintocirculation,whoisissuingit,howtheyhavepowerandcontrolovertheeconomy,andoverindividuals'lives,Ithinkthere'dbealotofveryunhappypeoplearound.~FrancisAyley,Founder&President,FourthCornerExchange(alternativemoneysystem)
Thatarbitrageiswhatconcealsthetrueenergycostofanyparticularsource.A20:1sourcecanbeleveragedto40:1bypassingitthrougha2:1sourcelikeshaleoil.
TheoverallEROEIisnow40:21butthe2:1producersmakeaniceprofitandfurthermorecanclaimtheentirereserveasrecoverableatthecurrentcost.
Afterdepletionofthe20:1sourcetheymighthavetousetheirownoilforproduction.Nowhalfofthereserveisconsumedtogettheotherhalf,andtheextractionratehastodoubletoprovidethesamenetoutput.A100yearsupplybecomesa25yearsupply.
Andthatisassumingthereisnoincreasetooffsetthelossofthe20:1source.Thepricecanbeexpectedtorisecorrespondingly.
TheUShasrefineryprocessgainsofoveronemillionbarrelsperday.Thatisalmostasmuchastherestoftheworldcombined.Theyhavetobecountingrefineryprocessgainsonimportedoil.
Thatiscorrect.TheEIAiscounting"refinerygain"onimportedoilas"USoilproduction".Itisatotallybogusproductbyanystandard,andtheonlyreasonIcanimaginethemdoingitistoartificiallyinflateUSoilproductionstatistics.Thishastobepoliticallymotivated.
AndtheIEAboughtintotheEIA'smisinformation(callitalie)withtheirlatestreport,whichmeanseitherthattheydon'tunderstandtheEIA'sreportingortheyarecomplicitintheactofoverstatingUSproduction.Yourchoice...
ThereisanadditionfactorwhichtheEIAisnotgoingtowanttomakeclear.USoilimportsareincreasinglycomingfromCanada,andmostCanadianoilproductionisnowfromtheoilsandsasCanadianconventionaloilproductiondeclinesandoilsandsproductionincreases.CanadanowexportsmoreoiltotheUSthanitconsumesitself.
Theproductwhichisexportedismostlybitumen,whichisnot"tar"assomepeoplewouldhaveyoubelieve,butitisabouttheheaviestgradeofoilyoucanbuy.Midwestoilrefineriesnolongerhavesufficientdomesticoiltokeeprunning,butthereislotsofCanadianbitumenanditisverycheaptobuy(althoughnottoproduce).Theyupgradeitusingcoking,andmakeatonofmoneyturningitintogasoline.
DespitethefactthattheEROEIofcokingisnegative(thereisanenergyloss),thereisahugerefinerygainingoingfromveryheavybitumentomuchlightergasoline.TheEIAcountsthisas"USoilproduction"despitethefactitcomesfromtheCanadianoilsandsandinvolvesanetlossofenergy.
That'sanotherfactorinthehuge"refinerygain"theEIAandthereforetheIEAiscountinginpredictingtheUSwillexceedSaudioilproduction.It'snotreallyoil,inphysicaltermsit'ssomekindofanextremevacuum,oraformofnegativeenergy.
Furthermore,importingextraheavyoilfromCanadianbitumen(aka,tarforthosewhodon'tunderstandthattarisderivedfromcoal)sandsrequirestheadditionofsomedilutanttothemixtoreducetheviscosityenoughtoallowthemixtoflowthrupipelines.LookingquicklyattheEISfortheKeystoneXLpipelinefromtheUSStateDepartment,onelearnsthatthechemicalmakeupofthosedilutantsarecompanyproprietaryinformation.It'slikelythatthesearemadeupoflighterfractionsofcrudeoil,suchasnaphthaorevensomeNGPLs.Thefractionswiththelowestboilingpointtemperaturewouldmostlikelybemixedinduringthecoldestmonthsoftheyearwhentheoilwouldbemostviscous.
Thesourceofthosedilutantsisunknown,buttherehavebeencommentsaboutbuildingapipelinefromtheUStoAlbertatoprovidethosechemicals.Ifthisisdone,thedilutantswouldbe(are)addedtotheexportcolumnoftheEIAdata,butwouldthenbereturnedtotheUSalongwiththeheavyoilandthenrecoveredatsomepointduringtherefiningprocess.Theresultcouldbelikealoopwithinwhich(almost)nochangeinthetotalquantityofmaterialoccurs,butwhichappearsasareductionintotalimportsduetodoublecountingintheEIAvolumebaseddata...
LookingquicklyattheEISfortheKeystoneXLpipelinefromtheUSStateDepartment,onelearnsthatthechemicalmakeupofthosedilutantsarecompanyproprietaryinformation.
Proprietary,shmoprietary,it'sonlytheStateDeparmentthatdoesn'tknowwhat'sinit.IfyouGoogle,"WesternCanadianSelect",you'llfindoutmorethanyoueverwantedtoknowaboutit.They'retryingtosellit,afterall.
WesternCanadianSelectisaHardistybasedblendofconventionalandoilsandsproductionmanagedbyCanadianNaturalResources,CenovusEnergy,SuncorEnergy,andTalismanEnergy.Argushaslauncheddailyvolume-weightedaveragepriceindexesforWesternCanadianSelect(WCS)andwillpublishthisindexinthedailyArgusCrudeandArgusAmericasCrudepublications.
...followedbyachemicalanalysisofthemostrecentsampleofit.
Whatisgoingdownthepipelinesisamixtureofoilsandsbitumen,conventionalheavyoil,syntheticcrudeoil,condensate,andpentanesplus.Themixturevariesfromdaytoday.Thebuyersdon'treallycarewhereitcamefromorhowitwasmixed,theyonlycarethatitmeetsspecs,i.e.thechemicalanalysisisright.
TherearepipelinescarryingdiluentfromtheUStoCanada,anditisgettingtobeabigbusinesswiththeincreaseinCanadianbitumenandheavyoilproduction.Therearealsorailcarsfullofbitumengoingsouth,andcarryingcondensateandpentanesplusonthebackhaul.
SoaringoutputoflightcondensateintheUnitedStateshascrushedrefiningmarginsfornaphthaandaddedtotheglobalgasolinesurplus.
ButitisalsoprovidingaboosttoCanada'soilindustry,whichincreasinglybenefitsfromacaptivesourceofthediluentneededtomakebitumenandheavyoilflowthroughprocessingfacilitiesandpipelines.
Inthepasttwoyears,collapsinggaspriceshaveforceddrillingcompaniesintheUnitedStatestoshiftfromtargetingdrygasfieldstoliquid-richplayscontainingamixtureofgasandmorevaluablecrudeoilandcondensatetokeeppayingthebills.
AsU.S.pricesfornaphthaandnaturalgasolinefall,moreandmoreofthesurpluscondensateisbeingexportedtoCanadaforuseintheproductionandtransportationofbitumenandheavycrudeoils,whereitisbeingaddedasadiluenttoimproveviscosityandhelpthemflowmoreeasilythroughtheprocessingandpipelinesystem.
COCHINREVERSAL
Exportsseemsettorisefurther.OnJune5,KinderMorganEnergyPartnersannouncedithadsecuredbindingcommitmentstotransportmorethan100,000barrelsperdayoflightcondensate(pentanesplus)foratleasttenyearsonitsCochinpipelinefromtheU.S.stateofIllinoistoFortSaskatchewaninAlberta,Canada().
Atpresent,Cochintransportspropaneandpropane-ethanemixfromCanadatotheUnitedStates.ButasU.S.gasoutputsurges,demandforCanadianexportshasfallenandthelineisoperatingatafractionofitsratedcapacity.Meanwhile,risingoutputofbitumenandheavyoilinCanadarequiresincreasedimportsoflightcondensatetodilutetheviscouscrude.
I'mkindoffondoftheCochinpipelinebecauseIdidsomesystemsanalysisontheircomputerpipelinemonitoringsystem.
Environmentalgroupblatheringaboutwatershortagesandnaturalgasshortagesaside,thebiggestconstraintonCanadianoilsandsproductionisashortageofcondensatefordilutingthebitumenforpipelinetransport,andtheUSisreallygoingalongwaytowardsolvingthisproblem,albeitinadvertently..
YousaythatnapthapricesarefallingAUSgallonofColemancampingfuelwhichIbelieveisnapthawassellinginCanadaforaround$19thissummer.ThatisconsiderablymorethanIhaveeverhadtopayforthisfuel.
"Refinerygain"isdefinitelyamisleadingstatisticbutthereisapointthere.Itisgoodtodoyourownrefining.Jobs,value-add,refinerygain,etc.
SinceRudolphDieselbuiltanenginewherefarmerscouldgrowtheirownfuel,itseemsabitcontradictorytolimittheuseofbiofuels.Growpeanutsandmakeyourownfuel.Can'thavethat.CanolafarmersinCanadahavebeenknowntousecanolaoilintheirdieselenginecars.SuchasitisinTheWorldofPeakInsanitywherethefoolsrushinwhereangelsfeartotread.Gottabefinancialchicanery.
Farmerscangrownonfoodbiomasstosynthesizediesel.
Soundslikeyouhavenevertriedtorunatransportorotherbusinessonbiofuellikebiodiesel.MycustomerinNorthDakotaconvertedseveralvehiclestorunon100%biodiesel.Hiscompanysoldmillionsofgallonsofthestuffoverthelasttwoyears.Problemisthatduringcoldweatherithastobeheatedtokeepfromgellingatlowtemps(muchhighertempthanforfossildiesel).Also,purebiodieseltendstosoftensomerubber,leadingtoleaksinfuelsystem.
Ithinkbiodieselasasmallpercentoftotalfuelvolume,perhaps5%or6%ofeachgallon,doesmakesense.Buttoportendthatbiodieselcanreplacefossildiesel100%inmostapplicationsisnormorethanhopefulthinking,atleastfortheUS,andespeciallysinceithasahardtimecompetingonapricebasis.RightnowmyNDcustomerthatmarketsbiodieselsaidthatwiththehighsoybeanpricecomparedtocrudeoilbiodieselcantcompete.Themarketisnotfavorableforbiodieselreplacingmostfossildiesel,norwillitbefortheforeseeablefuture.
So,economicsdictatethatbiodieselwillnotreplacemostfossildiesel,ratherthantechnologydictatingsuchashiftasyouimply.
SinceRudolphDieselbuiltanenginewherefarmerscouldgrowtheirownfuel,itseemsabitcontradictorytolimittheuseofbiofuels.Growpeanutsandmakeyourownfuel.Can'thavethat.
Ofcourseyoucan!Farmersgrowingtheirownfuelfortheirtractorsisonething.TheproblemiswhenyouwanttoscalethattoprovidedieselorethanolforalltheprivateICEpoweredautomobilessoeveryonecancontinuewiththehappymotoringfantasy.
TheotherdayImadeacommentthattherewerethreethingsthatthehumanracejustdoesn'tseemtobeabletoreallyunderstand.1)TheexponentialfunctionasexplainedverywellbyDr.AlbertBartlett.2)Thelawsofthermodynamics,specificallynetenergyandhowitappliestothingslikebiofuels.DrTedPatzekexplainsthatprettywell.3)Chaostheoryandtippingpoints,herewegetintoprettyadvancedmathematicsratherquicklybutthegeneralconceptitselfisn'tallthatdifficulttograsp.
"Farmersgrowingtheirownfuelfortheirtractorsisonething."
Iwonderhowthelandusewouldcomparetofeedingapairofmules
SometimeagointheTODrealmthisdiscussionwashad...maybeseveraltimes...
...IthinkIrememberseveralfolksagreeingthattheamountoflandneededtogrowvegetationrequiredtoeithermakeliquidfuelforafarm'sequipmentortofeedafarm'sbeastsofburdenis~25%oftheamountofvegetationgrownonanygivensizeoffarmparcel(Iassumethereisaminimumsizedparceltowhichthisapplies).
DoesthismemorycheckwithotherTOD-sters
HeyheyUlan,
Iremembersomediscussionofpastureorhayfieldsfordraftanimalsbeinginthe1/3~1/4oftotalacreagerange.Idon'trememberanynumbersforbiofuelacreageasafractionoftotalland,butIdorememberthatthemetabolicefficiencyofahumanwalkingiscomparabletothatoftheInternalCombustionEngine.Iwouldassumethatthatrelationship,moreorless,holdsfordraftanimals.So,ifthenetefficiencyisprettycloseIwouldassumethatthepercentofacreagemustsimilar.
Thanks,Tim
Yes,that'smyrecollection,too.About25%ofthelandhadtodedicatedtofeedingdraftanimals,whereasonlyabout10%hastobededicatedtogrowingsoybeansorcanolafortractorfuel.Theadvantageofdraftanimalswasthattheanimalscouldharvestitthemselves,andtheycoulduselandthatwastoosteepforatractor-veryusefulforfarminghillcountry,lesssoonflatplains.
TheoldModelTcouldrunongasoline,kerosene,oralcohol.Itcouldalsorunonunrefinedcondensatedirectfromthewell,whichwaspopularduringtheDepression.Mymotherhateditbecausetheyhadn'tremovedthesulfurfromitandtheexhauststanktohighheaven.Theycalledit"skunkgas",butitwasverycheap.
TheOldGrayMatteralsodredgedupthissidenoteontheModelTwhichIthenverifiedandcitedfromWikipedia:Thecar's10USgal(38l;8impgal)fueltankwasmountedtotheframebeneaththefrontseat;onevarianthadthecarburetor(aHolleyModelG)modifiedtorunonethylalcohol,tobemadeathomebytheself-reliantfarmer.
Nomodificationisnecessary:justadjustthecarburetorjetappropriately.Forgasoline,screwtheadjustmentallthewayin,thenscrewitbackouttwoandonequarterturns(that'satsealevel--theoptimumsettingvarieswithaltitude).I'dguessopeningitaboutthreeturnstotalwouldworkforethanol,thoughI'veneverrunaModelTonethanol.InmyyouthIdidrunoneregularlyonkerosene,though.Exceptinthehottestweatheryouhavetostartitongasoline,butitrunsfineonkerosene.
CarburetorjetadjustmentwasastandardprocedurewiththeModelT.I'veseenvehicleswithanextensionontheadjustersoitcanbeadjustedfromthedriver'sseat,thoughIdon'tthinkthatwaseverstandard.
Itakethistomean1%oflandgrowingpotatoescouldprovidefarmfuelfortheother99%.Soundswayoptimistic,butmaybehemeantjustcultivation,whichdoesnottakeallthatmuchfuel,asopposedtoplanting,plowingandharvesting
Oilconsumptionin1925wouldhavebeenafractionofcurrentconsumptionsoitwouldhavebeenfeasibletosatisfythatdemandwithethylalcohol.
Andtheenergies/materialsrequiredforthecentralizedinfrastructures(manufacture,pipelines,refineries,roadways,etc.),centralizedbureaucracy/paper/tree-use/waste/plasticrecyclingplants;duplication,shippingtimes,one-trickponies,etc.;versusmanure,composting,food,heat&energyfromcomposting;decentralized/local-distillation/food/labour/currencies,redundancies,over-engineeringtolast,roadway-constructionformules;),mule-shoe/saddleorharnessreplacement/construction,andsoforth.(Funnyperhaps,buttrue.)
What'seconomicaboutcertaineconomiesexactly
"Today'sFarmer'sAlmanacispublishedbyMonsanto."("andTheQueenisonwelfare[andsomemoney]").
"Ofcourseyoucan!Farmersgrowingtheirownfuelfortheirtractorsisonething.TheproblemiswhenyouwanttoscalethattoprovidedieselorethanolforalltheprivateICEpoweredautomobilessoeveryonecancontinuewiththehappymotoringfantasy."
TwoneighboursandIaremakingcontestplanstoconvertwoodgas/alternativetransportenginesthatwillgetustotownandback(100milesreturn).Oneisplanningtodothiswithhisboat,andtwoareconvertingtheirtrucks.ImightbuildasmallcarorconvertabeaterasIcan'tbringmyselftochangemy86ToyPU
IsupposetheprizewillbebraggingrightsandabottleofCrownRoyalorgoodscotch.Andwewillallshareinthewinnings!!Iguessthewholepointisthatifourlinkingroadtransportbecomesdodgy,wewillstillbeabletotradeforstuff...allintheoryofcoursebecauseIamsurethispavedandseldomtraveledhighwaywillstayopenforever.:-)
Paulo
Whoislimitingtheuseofbiofuels
Itseemsfairlyobviousthattheexactoppositeistrue.Theworld,andinparticulartheUS,areaggressivelypromotingandsubsidizingbiofuels.
Idon'tthinkthatthereisanythingwrongwithafarmeroranyoneelseusingbio-resourcesforfuelorothernon-foodpurposes(alcohol,clothing,etc.).
Butinalmostallcaseshumansarewillingtopaymoreforcaloriesthathumanconsumeratherthancaloriesthathumansuseforenergy.
Withoutsubsidizesforbiofuelproduction,wewouldnotbedivertingnearlyasmuchfoodproductioncapacitytoliquidfuels.
Infact,Idon'treallybelievethatthereisafoodversusfuelconflictatall.Itiscompletelycreatedbybiofuelsubsidies.
That'sright.Theuseofbiofuelsisbeingpromotedbysubsidiesindevelopedcountries,whichresultsinhigherfoodpricesworldwideaslandthatcouldbeusedtoproducefoodinsteadisbeingusedtoproducefuel.
Infact,IbelievethatBraziliscurrentlyimportingfuelethanolfromtheUSandusingitsownsugarcanecropforproducingsugar.Thepriceofsugarishighenoughthatit'scheapertoimportcornethanolfromtheUSthanproduceethanolfromtheirownsugarcane.
Thisisdespitethefactthatsugarcaneethanolismoreefficienttoproducethancornethanol.ThewholesystemisdrivenbyUStaxpayersubsidies.
"inalmostallcaseshumansarewillingtopaymoreforcaloriesthathumanconsumeratherthancaloriesthathumansuseforenergy"
-Iwishthatwastrue,butunfortunatelyitisnot.Thatisbecausewe'retalkingaboutdifferentpeopledoingeach.Theaveragecitizenoftherichcountriesspendsseveraltimesmorejustoncarfuelthanthetotalincomeofeachofthebillionorsopoorpeopleinthethirdworldwhocanbarelyaffordenoughfoodtosurvive.(Andthat'snotcountingotherenergyusessuchashomeheating.)Aspetroleumbecomesscarcer,andattemptsaremadetoreplaceitwithbiofuels,thepriceoffoodincreasesandsomepeoplestarve-butnotthepeopleusingthebiofuels.Thiscanbeblamedsolelyonthebiofuelsubsidiesifbiofuelsindeedareanetenergylosstoproduce.
"Peoplewhoowncarshavemoremoneythanpeopleatriskofstarvation.Inacontestbetweentheirdemandforfuelandpoorpeople’sdemandforfood,thecar-ownerswineverytime."
Manythanksforthispost,atthispointitmustbeconsideredthatthisIEA"report"(whichthepressevenmanagesto"bumpup"inthe"right"direction)ispurepropaganda.
TheknowledgeISwithintheIEA,ittrulyispurepropaganda.
Andthefinancialadjectivecanbeaddedtopropagandaabove.
Thatthisreportispropagandaisn'tsayingthatitis"IEApropaganda".
(freeaccountrequiredbutsufficienttoread)
Extracts:
HowistheWorldEnergyOutlookputtogether
Ihavealargeteamof40peoplewithwhomwewritetheWEOtogether,alongwithinputfromabouttenexternalexperts.Wehavefact-findingmeetingsandworkshops.Wealsosendoutdraftversionstoabout200peerreviewers.
....
TheUSwillnotbecomethenextSaudiArabia
Thatisanotherpointaboutwhichtherehasbeenquiteabitofmisconceivedspeculation.TheUSbecomingtheworld'slargestoilproducer,overtakingSaudiArabia,isabigstory,yes.ButitshouldnotbetakentomeanthattheUSwillbecomethenextSaudiArabia.Itwillnot.SaudiArabiaisandwillremainforseveraldecadesthelargestoilexporteroftheworld.
DoesthisnotionthattheUS,longtheworld'slargestoilimporter,couldbecome"energyindependent"inthefuture,meanthat"peakoil"isdead
Istillthinkthattherewillbedifficultiestobringoiltothemarketintermsofmeetingdemandandalsotomakeupforthedeclineofexistingfields.Don'tforgetthatofeveryfourbarrelsofextraoilthatweneedoverthenext25years,onlyoneisneededtomeetdemandgrowth,andthreetocompensateforthedeclineofexistingfields.SothegrowthcomingfromtheUSandCanadashouldnotmakeusbelievethatwenowhaveplentyofoilformanyyearstocomeandeverythingwillbepicobello.Therearestilllargepolitical,technologicalandgeologicalchallenges.....Inanearlierreportyouhavesaidthatwecanexpecta"goldenageofgas",thanksinlargeparttotheshalegasrevolutionwhichhasshakenuptheUSgasmarketandisnowbeingexportedtoothercountries.HowwillthisgoldenageofgasaffecttheEuropeangasmarket
AtthismomentEuropeangaspricesare4to5timeshigherthanintheUS.Fiveyearsagotheyweremoreorlessequal.ThisiscreatingaverynegativesituationforEuropeanconsumers.PowerpricesinEuropewillbe50%higherthanintheUSandthreetimesmorethanChina.That'samajorproblemfortheEuropeaneconomy.Somethingneedstobedoneaboutthat.EUpolicyshouldbemuchstrongeronthis.TheenergydecisionsbeingmadeinEuroperightnowarepushingEuropeintodifficulteconomictimes.
AndapostfromAntonioTurielaboutthe2012report:
Whichshowsbelowgraph:
SothatifthereporthasaveryoptimisticmessageregardingtheUS(andtheoneonwhichthepresshasjumped)theoverallglobalmessageprovidedreallyisn'tthatoptimistic...Basicallybeing:conventionaloilhaspeakedin2006.
Tobecomparedwithequivalent2010graph:
Inthepostlinkedbelow,IextrapolatedsixyearsofdeclinesinwhatIcalltheECIratio(ratiooftotalpetroleumliquidsproductiontoliquidsconsumption),inordertoestimatepost-1995CNE(cumulativenetexports)fortheSixCountry*CaseHistory.Attheendof2001,estimatedremainingpost-1995CNE,dividedby2001annualnetexportsperyearwas5.1years.Theactualratioturnedouttobe2.5years.
Inasimilarfashion,Iextrapolatedthesixyear2005to2011rateofdeclineintheGNE/CNIratio(ratioofGlobalNetExportstoChindia'sNetImports),inordertoestimatepost-2005AvailableCNE(AvailableNetExports,orANE,areGNElessChindia'sNetImports).Attheendof2011,estimatedremainingpost-2005AvailableCNE,dividedby2011ANE,was7years.ANEisthevolumeofnetexportedoilthatisavailabletoabout155netoilimportingcountriesaroundtheworld.
Moredetailednumbers:
Asnotedinmypost,thesenumbersappeartobeimpossiblypessimistic,butthenwehavetheSixCountryCaseHistory.
*Indonesia,UK,Egypt,Vietnam,Argentina,Malaysia,allmembersofAFPEC(AssociationofFormerPetroleumExportingCountries).
Maybeatranslationcouldbedonefortheoildrum
RemainstobeseenhowandifthiswillberelayedintheMSM...
Toplaythe"Devil'sadvocate"abit,about:
ThelastsmallgreencurveontherightwasintroducedlastmonthtodescribetheBakkenandEagleFordshales,aswellastheincreasedproductionofcrudeoilfromthePermianBasinnearMidland,TX.
Onecouldsay:"Ok,soyoujustaddtheseasneededwhentheoriginalpredictiondoesn'tworkanymoreAndyouwantustobelievethis"theory"!"
AndhowaboutthecurrentSECrulesregardingbookingthesereserves,asIunderstandtheseweremodifiedforshalegas,sameforshaleoil
"...thestaterisksgettingleftbehindastherestoftheworlddivesintoshale..."
Theytalkasifithasashelflife.Ithasbeeninthegroundforalongtime,itwillkeep,itisnotgoinganywhere.
Yesforsure,althoughconsideringprevioushumanbehaviour,ifthethingisfoundandthewaytogetitoutisavailablewithaprofit,ittendstobetakenout...
Thatistrue,Ithinkyouhaveidentifiedthesituation.Whentheycanjustpullitoutofthegroundandmakeatonofmoney,makeitasfastasyoucan,getyourreturnpaidbackquickly....seemsabitmadattimes.
Dr.Patzek,Idon'thavethetimeatthemomenttoreplicateyouranalysisbutIthinkyournegativeopinionofbiofuelfacilitieshasaglaringerror.Yourswitchgrasspaperassumeda43%energyefficiencyandfromtheredeterminedanapproximateprimaryenergyinputtothefacility;however,moderndesignsworkmuchmorelikepapermillsthantheydolikecornethanol.Non-fermentablesfromthebiomassareburnedforcombinedheatandpower.Theenzymaticcellulosicethanolfacilitiesthatyoumodeledaresizedtoexportsteamandelectricity.See,e.g.,FrontierRenewableResourcesatKinross,MIorPOETProjectLiberty.Theyrequirenoexternalprimaryenergyinputasallnecessaryprocessingenergycomesfromthefeedstock.
Cellulosicethanolprojectswillburntheirlignincoproduct,unlikecornethanolplantswhoseeconomicsareheavilydependentonthevalueoftheirdistiller'sgrains,whichrequireadditionalenergyinputtodry.
Idon'thaveexpertiseinanyotherareassoIdidn'treviewtheotherbitsofthestudyindetail,thoughIdidn'tfindanythingelseIdisagreedwith.Howeverthisoversighthasthepotentialtoreverseyourconclusion.
"Ifswitchgrassplantedon140millionhectares(theentireareaofactiveU.S.cropland)wereusedasfeedstockandenergysourceforethanolproduction,thenetethanolyieldwouldreplaceonaverageabout20%oftoday’sgasolineconsumptionintheU.S."-Patzek
Don'tplantswitchgrass,don'tusefermentationanddon'ttrytoreplaceallrefinedgasoline.PlantMiscanthus,gasify,synthesizefuelandreplace20%-30%ofrefinedgasolinefrom30millionacres.ThatshouldbeenoughtoreplacemiddleeastimportedoiltotheU.S.
Ifwearecreatingscenarios,youcouldalsoplantmiscanthus(orgiantkinggrass),burnitinasteamturbineandcreateelectricityforcarsandotherpurposes.Ihaven'trunthenumbersanddon'tknowhowthevolumescompare,butexpectitwouldbesimilar.
However,unlesssomeonecanshowmedataindicatingthatthesecropscanreallyproducethenumberstheirproponentsclaim,I'llbeskepticalthatthisisamorecommerciallyviablepathwaythanusingthesamelandforfood(orthatthegrassescanproducecommercialyieldsonlandnotsuitableforfood).
MiscanthusandothergrasseshavebeenaroundforalongtimeandIhaven'tbeenabletofindanyreliabletrialnumbersthatwouldsupportanoptimisticcase.Iseeoptimistictons/HAfigurestossedaround,butnotthesupportingtrials.
Jack,
HerearesomeofthelinksIhave.
IthinktheclaimsfromCoolPlanetareidealconditionsandshouldnotbeusedforproductionfigures.Iuse2000gallonsofsyntheticgasolineperacre,nottheir4000gallons.
Thanksforthis.ButIwaslookingforsomedataonactualtrials.
Ihavelookedatbiomassandoilproductionforalotofcropsandeveninsomefairlyobscurecasesthereareacademicorgovernmentstudiesavailable.IamsurprisedthatalthoughMiscanthusandGiantKingGrasshavestrongpromoters,theyhavevarylittleanalyticalsupport.
IaminAsiaandamreallymoreinterestedinbiomasscombustion,somyquestionsconcerntons/haandheatingvalue.Therehavebeenvariousattemptsatprojectsusingoneofthegrasseshereoverthelastfiveormoreyears,butnonehastakenoff.Andfiveyearsisplentyoftimetohavedevelopedfairlyadvancedtrialplotsanddata.
Ihavetobelievethatthereasonwearen'tseeingrealtrialdataisthatitisn'tgood,orwouldn'tpassscrutiny.
IamsurprisedthatalthoughMiscanthusandGiantKingGrasshavestrongpromoters,theyhavevarylittleanalyticalsupport.
EversinceCalGuypostedhiscommentsaboutthewondersofMiscanthusImyselfhavebeenlookingfortheharddata.
Ihavefoundalotofcherrypickingofthedatafromthosethatarepromotersandprobablyhaveavestedinterests.ThathavingbeensaidwhatIhavefoundisthattheFER(fuelenergyratio)andtheNEV(netenergyvalue)forMiscanthusgenerallyseemstobesomewhatmorefavorablethanmaizeandswitchgrass,franklynotmuchtowritehomeaboutasfarasIcantell.ItseemsthatallbiofuelsmuststillobeythebasicrulesofEcosystemThermodynamicsandasfarasIcantell,I'msorrytoreport,therestillain'tnofreelunch.
Ihaveskimmedeightdifferentpaperssofarfromdifferentuniversitiesfromallovertheworld.HereisanexampleofthekindofinformationIhavebeenlookingat.Thisoneinparticularshowsdatathataresomewhatfavorabletowardsbiofuelsingeneral.
ThoughtobefrankIhavenotcheckedtoseewheretheirfundingcomesfromandifconsequentlytheymaybesomewhatlessthanwillingtotakeofftherosetintedglassestheymaybewearing...
IthinkItendtoagreewiththisstatementofyours
Cheers,Fred
Therearetrialsconductedbyuniversities,theDOEandAgricultureDepartments.Idon'tthinktheywouldconvinceyounomatterwhattheysaid,sowhybother
Goodwaytoavoidprovidinglinkstosaidstudies...
Ifthesegrasseswerereallythatgreatthenthemarketwouldhavealreadyjumpedonit.Ormaybe,likethewaterpoweredcar,itisbeingkeptawayfromeveryonebygovernmentconspiracy...
Honestly,ifwearecomparingMiscanthus,oranyplantoutthere,tosolarPVasDr.Patzekistheexerciseisacademic.IfIrecallcorrectlythebestphotosyntheticefficiencyisaround3.5%(thoughsomeratherbombasticbiotechcompaniesareclaiminganimplausible7.1%).OfcourseaPVpanelwillbeatthat,evenifitneedsthreetimestheareafortracking,shadingpreventionandthelike.ThecomparisontosolarPVstilldoesnotaddressthefactthattheresourcesrequiredforbiofuelproductionvs.solarPVareverydifferent,butlet'snotdeludeourselveshere:pinningyourhopesonalgaeormiscanthus,intermsofpureconversionefficiency,isafool'serrand.
Thesealgaeandgrassesarenicecuriositiesonsmallscales,theproblemisscalingthemuptoreplacefossilfuels.Notgonnahappen.
Idisagree.Ultimatelygasificationwilldonobetter-andlikelyworse-thanfermentationintermsofmassyieldoncarbonandintermsofusableliquidfuelsenergyproduction.TheruleofthumbforFischer-TropschandmostotherGTLprocessesis50%ofyourfeedstockusedtofueltheprocess;withbiomassit'slikelyhigherbecauseadditionalenergymustbeexpendedtodrivewateroff.
Miscanthusalsowillmakeabadfeedstockforgasificationforreasonsotherthanitsenergycontent.There'sverylittleindustryexperiencedesigningfeedersforgasifiersthatusefibrousfuels.Feedersneedtoformpressure-resistantplugswiththefeedstockinputinacontinuousfashion;fibrousgrassesorsoftwoodwastesareparticularlyill-suitedforthesetypesofapplication.Therehavebeensomehigh-profilefailuresofbiomassgasificationinpartduetotheirlackofsuitabilityforcurrentdesigns.RangeFuels,besidesitsotherfailures("youmeanpassingsyngasoveramethanolcatalystISN'Tgoingtomakeethanol!!")hadalotoftroublefeedinghogfuelintoitsscrew-plugbasedgasifierstoachieveeconomicalthroughput.
Theseguysseemtothinkitwillworkwiththermochemicalconversion,butwhattotheyknow
So,someofusreadituptoaweekagobut,itisstillaverygoodpieceandworthyofit'splaceasakeypostforthefolksthatdidnotfollowUlenspiegel'slink.
Alanfromtheislands
Patzek,
Icannotcommentonyouroilfigures,butyourethanolandsustainabilityresearcheddocumentisfullofholes.Yourentireargumentagainstcornethanolisbasedonaworstcaseproductionmodel.FairenoughwhentheUSinsistsonproducingcornethanolintheworstpossibleway,butyoufailtoexaminetheproductionmethodswhenconsideringsustainability.
UScornethanolproductionwouldiftranslatedtotransportbetheequivalentofhavingallvehiclesderivingbackwards,andaircraftflyingsideways.Thecornfarmingcommunityhavefailedtoadapttonewfarmingpractices,specificallynontillfaming,andthedestillersfailtousebiofuelintheirproductionprocess.ThevehiclemanufacturersdonotproduceefficienthighcompressionE100enginesofthetypethatwasbeingdevelopedbySaabinthe9litresizeforcommercialvehicles.Withsuchanengineallfarmproductionandtransportwouldbeachievedwithoutfossilfuels.
Yoursolarenergyassessment,apartfrombeingwayoutofdatefromanumberofperspectives,isasmonodimensionalastherestofyourdocument.Takethefactthatpresentdaysolarsystemscanbeupto60%efficient,andfuturesystemswillnearertothatlevel,andrethinkyourarticleandyouwillseethatsustainabilityisnotjustpossible,itiseasilyachievableandfarmorecosteffectivethanfossilfuelenergysystems.Solarwillnotreplacefossilfuelscompletleyforaverylongtime,andtheuseofliquidfuelswillcontinueindefinitelywhenviewedfromthecurrentdayperspective.
Itiswrongtoassumethatarenewablesustainablefuturewillbeacontinuationofthepresent,exactlyasisbutwithadifferentenergysource.Anditiswrongtoassumethatpeoplewouldevenwantthattobethecase.Butitisalsowrongtoassumethatasustainableenergyfutureis...less...thanthepresentintermsofopportunitiesandqualityoflife.
Citations
Isecondthat!
Itisnothardtofindthisinformation,people:
Oneofthemanyadvantagesofnontillfarmingisthatlessoftheorganicmatterisleftonthegroundandbecomesavailablebiofueltopowerthedistillationprocessheatandelectricity.
Saab's9litreE100engineengineprojectbecameacasualtyoftheirfinancialcollapse,buttheconceptisrocksolid.Eginesspecificallydesignedforethanol'shighoctaneratingperformfarmoreefficientlythanflexfuelengines.
Solarenergypostersbelowpointintherightdirectiononoverallsolarefficiency.Thereisalotoftechnologytoemergeinthenearfutureinthisarea.
AsIsayPatzek'sresearchinthisdirectioniswayoutofdateandtotallymissleading.
Youalsoneedtotakeinthedramaticdevelopmentsintheelectricpoweredaviation,thebestcompendiumofwhichisattheCafeFoundationBlog.
Theprinciplevalidcriticismoftransitiontorenewabletechnologiesistheachieveablepaceofchange.Wearetalkingabouta50yeartimeframehere.Andtheothervariableisenergyavailability.Isthereenoughoillefttoperformthetransition,therebuildingofsomuchinfrastructureThatistherelevencyofPatzek'sarticlehere.
Itdoesn'tmatterhowefficientSaab'sengineis,ortheconversionefficiencyofbiomassintoethanol,thereisn'tenoughproductivelandavailabletopowerevenapartialconversiontobiofuels.
NullHypothysis,
Itisnotabouttheefficiencyoftheengine,itisaboutthatalloftheproductionmachinerycanoperateontherenewableendproductfuel,eliminatingtheuseofFossilfuelsinthefarmproductionandthefueldistillationprocesses.
Onyourotherpoint,clearlyyouareaBusinessasUsualpersonwhowillbethelasttogiveuptheirgassguzzlingHumVeesuperSUV's.
Themostprobablefutureforpersonaltransport60yearsoutis70%personalvehiclesbeingelectricfuelfromrooftopsolarsystems,25%ultraefficient(100klms/ltre)biodieselcarsand5%remnantvehiclesfromthenaughties.
Youdon'tbelievethisHereisonereasontotakethisseriously
Indiancurrentprojects,50,000klmsnewhighwaystocrisscrosstheir3.28squarekilometercountry.Now,theyarenotplanningthisnewinfrastructureforbicycles.Itisbecausethiscompany
...hasplansbiggerthanFord.Thatmeanstheywanttheirshareoftheglobaldepletingoilresource.TheircarsmightbesmallerandmoreefficientthatChrysler,Pontiac,orFord,buttherewillbe5timesasmanyofthem.
AndthatisbeforewelooktoseewhatChinaisdoing.Inthatcountryonecannotbuyacarbeforetheyacquirethenumberplateforit.Thesearesoldbythegovernment.IamtoldthatforShanghaialonethereisawaitinglistforplatesonemillionapplicantslong.
Adviceforthefuture(20yearsout),ifyouareinsistingonhangingontoyourICESUV,makesurethatitisadieselsothatyoucanstockpilethefuel,andgetasparebikerackfittedinplaceofthesparetyreholder.Youwillbefarmorelikelytorunoutoffuelthatgetaflattyre.
Yourpostcontainsclaimswhichappeartobeseriouslyoverthetop.Forexample,enginesoptimizedforethanolwithhighcompressionratioswouldlikelynotachievetheefficiencyofadieselbecausedieselsrunmuchhighercompressionratios.Ofcourse,youmaybereferringtoaturbodieselenginerunningethanol,butthatshouldbecomparedtootherturbodieseldesigns,notgasolineengines.There'snosolartechnologywhichIamawareofwhichapproaches60%conversionefficiencyatthefirstlevelandallsolarsystemssufferfromtheintermittentnatureofthesource,whichrequiresstoragetomeetdemand24/7.Anytypeofstoragesystemhasconversionlosses,whichmustbecompoundedwiththeefficiencyofthebasicsolarsystem.
Iagreewiththeotherposts,where'sthebeef
Imadeandhaveasolarhotwaterpanelthatheats1gallonofwater50C(60Fto150F)in30minutesonahotdayinJuneandinacollectingareaof21x45inches.At1000W/m2forsunlight,theefficiencyis71%.Vacuumsealedsolarhotwaterpanelsaresupposedtohaveanevenhigherefficiency.Ihavenostoragesystemforthehotwater,sodemandonlyoccursduringtheday.
Evacuatedtubesolarthermalcollectorscanrunwellabove50%efficient,evenathighertemperatures.LearnhowtocombinemultiplejunctionPVwiththatandyoucancoveralotofthespectrum.
BilBb-IthinkIunderstandthepointyou'retryingtomakebutitseemsyoualsopresentagoodargumentwhyit'snotareasonableexpectation:"Thecornfarmingcommunityhavefailedtoadapttonewfarmingpractices...thedistillersfailtousebiofuelintheirproductionprocess.ThevehiclemanufacturersdonotproduceefficienthighcompressionE100engines...".MaybeI'mmisreadingyoubutyouseemtobearguingagainstyourpositionfromthestandpointofsustainability:ifnonehavethesechangeshavebeenmadeduringaseveralyearperiodwhenoilhasrangedfrom$90to$140perbblthenwhenwillthistransitionbemadeNoprocesscanbesustainableuntilit'sputintoplay.Andmaybenoteventhenbutitstillhastostartsometime.OTOHmaybeinthenext10yearsorsothoseproblemsyouhighlightmaybestartbeingaddressed.Onlytimewilltell.
Yourideamaylookgreatonpaper.I'veseenmanywellthoughtoutplanspresentedonTODovertheyears.Butoftenwiththesameproblem:noreasonableexpectationthatsuchaplanwillbeenactedanytimesoon.ButIlikeitwhensuchthoughtsarepresentediffornootherreasonbuttoconfirmoursocietalpigheadedapproachtomaintainingBAUbyfollowingthesamecourseofactionsthatgotusintothismess.
Goodpoint,Igoontheprobabilityofithappeningversusthegooddone.SomemaywantwirelesselectrichighwayswithEVs,butthatisnotlikelysoon.
WhatmaybemorelikelyisincreasedoildemandfromIndiaandChina,alimitedsupplywithbiddingwars.Ifthatstartstohappen,butthealternativesareadecadeaway,thenweshouldstartdevelopingalternativesnow.
Anddon'tforgetthatsomeofthebiofuel"production"isaone-timeminingfossilaquifers(especiallytheOgalalaaquiferundertheUSgreatplains).
IfdroughtbecomesthenorminalargepartoftheUS,IthinktheissueoflargescalewaterdiversionsfromCanada(ie.theNAWAPAproposal)willbebackonthetable.TheideaofsupplyingwatertotheUSishugelyunpopularinCanadaandwouldentaillargeenvironmentalcosts.Howeveritwouldbeveryhardtodenyacloseneighbouraccesstowateriftheyreallyneedit.WearealsodependentontheUStosupplyuswithfreshvegetablesandfruitformuchoftheyear(thoughthosehugefactoryfarmedCaliforniastrawberriesreallysuckcomparedtoourlocallygrownstrawberries).
I'mfamiliarwithyourcornethanolandsoybeanbiodieselanalysis,haveyoudonesimilaranalysesforSugarcaneethanolandbiodiesel,specificallyusingtheBrazilianprocess
So,technologicaladvancementhasalmostdoubledthepossiblefutureCO2emissions.DowehavetobecomplacentbecausewehaveenoughfossilfuelsorisitareallysadnewsforourchildrenIhopethattheworldcansomehowreachtoanagreementsoonandpreventthecatastrophicclimatechangethatcouldberealizedifweburnallthefuels.
We'realreadysetforcatastrophicclimatechangenow!Andourmaintopicofdiscussionishowtoextractandburnmorefuels.Wetrulydon'tcareaboutourchildren,wecareaboutusnow.
Aug-peopleareoverabarrel-notasmuchchoiceathereappears(thoughtheremostcertainlyischoice).Thesurestwaytomakeadifferenceinsofarasreducingcollectiveimpactuponwhatwerelyuponforourlongtermsustenanceistosharplyreduceindividualconsumption-butmuchconsumptionisforcedupontheindividualonsomanydifferentways.Corporateincomereliesuponincreasingconsumption,asdoesgovernmenttaxationincome.Itisextremelyhardtoextricateyourselffromourwastefulculture.Ihavereducedmyconsumptiontoaverylargedegree,yetImusttakepartinoureconomyofwaste,ifIdon't,myhouseandpropertyislosttotaxesbecausetherewillbenopersonalincome.Thetownandcountythatgetthetaxes-well,wastealot.Muchofthetown'swasteisforcedbystatelaw-etc.etc.
rehumannature,bowerbirdsandpeacockfeathers:HaveyounoticedhowmanypeoplewanttoconserveresourcesbyspendingBuyingthelatestgreentechnologyWhichgenerallydoesn'tworktoconserve-becausethetruestconservationisaformofvoluntarypoverty-averyrarethinginbiology.Wedocareaboutourchildren.Ithinkperhapsthatiswhyitissoimportantforourculturetolietoourselves.Otherwiseanyonemyageoroldercouldtalkfreelyaboutclimatechangeandlaughabouttheconsequences.
True,welietoourselves(Climatechangeisahoax,I'mhelpingbybuyingthis"Green"thing,etc.)sowedon'thavetofaceuptowhatwe'redoingtoourchildren.
Youaren'tkiddingaboutitbeingdifficulttoextricateonesselffromthecultureofwaste.Extremelyfrustratingwhenyou'reforcedtodosomethingthatissoagainstonesbeliefs.I'vebeen"frugal"allmylifesohavenodebts.Likeyou,I'vecutmyconsumptionhugely,whathelpsisthatIknowhowtorepairmostanythingelectrical,electronicormechanicalsoIpickuplotsofcast-offsandrepairthem.NoTVhere,noSmartphone,10year-oldlaptop...TraderepairedstuffforotherthingsIwant/need.
Ididbuynewoff-gridPVstuff,buteventhereIdoalltheinstallationmyself.
BTW,manymyage(56)andolderdotalkfreelyaboutclimatechangeandlaugh."It'stoocold,warmerwillbebetter."andsoon.Usuallycomesfromapositionofignorancelikeduringthislastelection.
Doesanyoneknowtheroughsellpricerequired(in$/kwh)tokeepanuke-coal-gaselectricalplantprofitableIknow-lotsofvariablesassumedinthisquestion,especiallycapitalpayback,variablecostoffuel,etc..AnyoneknowofanystudieshereRoughnumbersTks.
Variables..particularlyjustwhichexternalitiesoneiswillingtoincludeinthecosts.
OneofMcKibben'smainpointsonhiscurrenttourabouttheFFandEnergyIndustriesthatneedsasolidpushbackisthefactthatthereisbarelyanydemandthattheybeheldaccountableforthemassesofwastetheythrowintotheairandwater.SOMEeffortshavemadegainsforcreatingscrubbersandcleanupfunds..butcomparedtotheresponsibilitiesofmostbusinessesandcitizensfortakingcareoftheirwastes..theuncollectedcostsofthismakefewifanyoftheseproducersprofitable.
Withoutexternalcosts,theauthorwrites,"levelizedcostperkWhfornaturalgas-firedpowerplantstobe$0.076to$0.092,andforcoal,$0.086,bothwithoutcarboncaptureandstorage.Andin2009,MITissueditsUpdateontheCostofNuclearPower[PDF],inwhichtheyfoundlevelizedcostperkWhfornuclear’scompetitorsof$0.062(coal)and$0.065(naturalgas),withoutanychargeforCO2emissions."
IF(andthat'sbigIF)wecanstayonthe30-yearPVefficiency/costcurve,by2020sunny-spotPVwillbelessexpensivethancoal-ng-nuke,andby2040,averageglobalPVwillgenerateelectricityfor1/3thecostoffossil-nukeplants.IfPVseff/costcurveslowsdownby50%(unlikely,butcertaintosatisfythemostdie-hardanti-cornucopian),2040PVwillgenerateelectricityat1/2thecostoffossils.
Andifmorecountriesstartrealizing(andmonetizing)theexternalcostsoffossilgeneration,PVwillbecomeevenmoreattractive,andfarsooner.
butcomparedtotheresponsibilitiesofmostbusinessesandcitizensfortakingcareoftheirwastes
Puttingitlikethatwashesthehandsofthe'most',who,bottomline,wantenergycheapnow--thatshowsupinvirtuallyallourmostbasicshoppinghabits.Andpreciousfewoftheholierthanthousaroundtheedgesreallywanttoseethemultipliedateverytransactioncostincreasesthatoccurifthe'most'quitsuddenlyshoppingforcheapenergynowandstartedincludingthefuturecostsintheircalculations.Futurediscountingisveryrealandgetsmuchmoreapparentasitgetsharderto'fillthebelly'.Allthatdoesn'tmakemeparticularlyoptimisticabouttheworldkickingthecoalhabitanytimesoon.
Wellit'sdefinitelyabusinesswherethemessengerswillbequicklyshot.
Sowhatmightbeoneoftheotherwaystogetthatmessageacrossistopointoutjustenoughofthebitsthatneedtobeseen,andlettheaudienceputthepiecestogetherthemselves.Pointoutasimplebitofunfairness,likethefactthat'UtilitiesGettoPolluteforFree'..andletthathitwhoseverindignationandsenseofjusticethatitmight..whiletheparallelfactthattheRenewables,while'wimpy'incontrast..doNOTpollute,andsothisinvisibleexternalityisn'tevenafactor.
Somewillgetit,somewillcare..othersaren'tthereyet..butbitbybit,thepollutionissuewillgainweightasthealternativesshowwhatelseispossible,anditwillbeasmuchaneconomiccalcasitwillbea'Health/Environment'one.
ButMoneyandFairnesswillgetitintodoorsthatGreenConcernscan'tpenetrate.
Fairnessisatrickybeast,butyesitcriticalhere,andsofaronaworldscalemoneyistintinghowalltheplayersviewwhatisfairplay.Butweareunusualbeastsandsometimescanallbemovednearinstantlybythesimpleststimulus--likethetwonotes
simple,strong,
clearandhaunting
ForWhatIt'sWorth
Thatisafascinatingchart,andassumingthatthereareunlikelytobeanyother'babyHubberts'ofscaletoaddtoUSproductionoverthenextdecadewecanlookforwardtoaninterestingtimeofdenialandblameslidingdowntheproductionslope.
AlthoughtheBAUstrategyisalreadyclear:USoilindependenceisnowNAenergyindependence...inotherwordsanincreasingrelianceontheCanadianBitumenresourceandtheideathatitissomehowpartofthedivinegiftofAmericanexceptionalism.
Butreallywillthisfuddlebeupsaycomethenextpresidentialelection
Thatfirstgraph,thesumofcycles,isoneofthemostfrighteningIhaveseen.Thetrackingbetweenproductionandthecurveofthesumswouldsuggestthatanycornucopiansupplyofoilwouldhavetobeatotalbreakawayfromanythingthathasgonebefore.Thelittleup-tickgivesfoodtothe'up,upandaway'crowd.Thenthereisthatlongsteep,oneofthesteepest,intheverynearfuture.Ulp!
NAOM
Rethechartuptop:
DidyoudowhatIdidandtriedtoworkoutwhere2020isOuch!That'sonlysevenyearsaway.....sowithChinaplaningonimportinganotherrecordamountofoilnextyearandwhoknowshowmuchmoreeveryyeasthereafter[uptosomepoint,ofcourse]andtheKSAgoingflatoutandtheFSUlookingtodeclinesoon...that'sahugecallonwhatevercanbesuckedoutofIraq.
We'vegottodecoupleeconomicperformancefromliquidfuelsrealfastintheWest,how'sthatlookin'inyourneckofthewoods
I'mmoreconcernedabout2015,2020isshowoverfromthatgraph.Bicyclesseemtobegaininginpopularity.
Yesthisisnodistantoverthehorizonguess;itwon'tbelongbeforeweknowhowaccuratethismodelis.AndwithrignumbersintheShaleplaysfallingalreadyweprobablywon'thavetoevenwaitthosetwo+yearstotell!
Thefutureisnow.Soonit'llbeall:'Whydidn'tsomebodysaysomething'
PlanBislookingnecessary;isthereaplanB...Oh,wait....
"We'vegottodecoupleeconomicperformancefromliquidfuelsrealfastintheWest"
OildemandintheWestis,asexpected,startingtoflattenout.EIAforecastsflatdemandinto2040.ExxonforecastsWesternoildemandreducedby15%into2040,or16Mb/d.Ipersonallythinkdemandwillbeevenless(forreasonsstatedelsewhere).
Ontheotherhand,industrializingregions(India,China,etc.)willbedemandingfarmoreoilinto2040.Thisgrowingdemand,coupledwithglobalsupplyconstraints,willincreasinglydamperglobalGDPgrowth(includingourown).Classicpeakoiltheory.
I'mhavingtroublefiguringoutwhichgreencurveiswhich:
Thesmallercurvesstartingfrom1960weregeneratedbyproducingshallow,deepandultra-deepGulfofMexico,Alaska(mostlyPrudhoeBay),andtheneverythingelsethatwasnotintheoriginalcurve:largewaterfloodprojects,thermalandcarbondioxideenhancedoilrecovery(EOR)projects,horizontalwells,hydrofracturedwells,etc.Thebroadcurvepeakingin2002wasintroducedinlate2002,andthemodelrepresentedfairlywelltheU.S.crudeoilproductionuntil2010.ThelastsmallgreencurveontherightwasintroducedlastmonthtodescribetheBakkenandEagleFordshales,aswellastheincreasedproductionofcrudeoilfromthePermianBasinnearMidland,TX...
-sowhatisthelittlecurvefrom1920to1940Aretherethreeseparatecurvesfor"shallow,deepandultra-deepGulfofMexico"Idon'tseeenoughpost-1960curvesthereforthat.SoperhapsonecurveforallGulfoil.Butthatcan'tbe,sincethatfirstlittlecurvedecaystonearzerowaybackinthe1980's.Sowhat'swhatAndwhichoneistheAlaskacurvePresumablytheonepeakingcirca1985Isn'tthattooearlyfortheAlaskapeak
Thenthebroadercurvepeakingin2002mustbethe"everythingelse"curve.ButwhyshouldthosethingsfollowaHubberttypecurveThat's"largewaterfloodprojects,thermalandcarbondioxideenhancedoilrecovery(EOR)projects,horizontalwells,hydrofracturedwells,etc".IthoughtaHubberttypecurveissupposedtocoversecondaryandtertiaryrecoverytechniquesaswellastheprimaryextractionIfso,theseshouldhavebeenfoldedintothetop(Hubbert)greencurveAnddoesn'tthatlastbit(hydrofracturedwells)overlapwiththelastgreencurve,theBakkenEFetc
Andsincethatlastgreencurveismostlyinthefuture,andisconflatedwiththetailsofalltheothercurves,istherereallyenoughdatayettopredictwhenitwillpeakandhowhigh
Iwasalsobaffledbythegreencurves.ThisiswhatIthinkhemeant:
aardi-Ithinkyounaileditdeadon.DoesagreatjobcorrelatingshorttermsurgesthatarewellknownwiththevariationsofHubbert'sprojectionIMHO.I'veworkedthru3ofthoseshorttermbumps:IstartedmycareerintheoffshoreGOMboomin1975.ThentheN.Slopebumpisobviousaswellasthecurrentshalebump.TimewilltelliftheANWRbumpeventuallydevelops.Andthequestionwasaskedabove:whythebumpinthe30'sEasy:thediscoveryofthegiantETexasOilField.ItalsocorrespondstothedevelopmentofsomeoftheearliestmajoronshoreTexasfields.
WhenoneconsiderstherelativelyshorttermgainsfrommajordevelopmentssuchtheETexasField,theoffshoreGOMandtheNSlopeIfinditeasytonotexpectthecurrentshalebumptolastverylongnorhaveamuchmoresignificantimpactonthetotalproductioncurvethenwe'veseensofar.Weshouldhavethatanswerinthenext4to7yearsIMHO.Granteditjustaprojectionbaseduponcertainassumptions.ButeveniftheUSVOLUNTARIALLYdecreasesitsoilconsumption(viaimprovedefficiencies,biofuels,etc)by25%inthenexttenyearswe'llstillbeusingaround13mmbopd.TheprojectionshowstheUSproducingaround4MMbopdin10yearswhichimplieswe'llneedtoimportaround70%ofouroilconsumption...orroughlyabouttwicethecurrentpercentage.
Assaidit'sjustaprojectionbaseduponcertainassumptions.ButIMHOtheseassumptionsseemreasonable.Inanycaseweshouldhaveaclearerpictureinabout5years.Notreallyverylong...shortlyafterthenextpresidentialelection.Whoknows:ifwe'rerunningalittleaheadofschedulePOmayTHEissueinthenextpresidentialelection.
Rockman,Iamalsothinkingthatpeakoilinsomeversionwillemergeascentralinthe2016election.Partofthatmaybetiming,butanotherissomethingalreadyinmotion:shortfallsinfundingforsurfacetransportationintheUS.
InJuly,PresidentObamasignedararebipartisanbill,theMovingAheadforProgressinthe21stCenturyAct(MAP-21).Thisisthefirstmulti-yeartransportationfundingbilladoptedsince2005,andappearedtoprovidedependablefundingbothforpublictransitandhighways.Already,though,transportationagenciesaresoundingalarmsoverwhatisbeingcalledthetransportation"fiscalcliff."Basically,theHighwayTrustFund(thefederalgastax)isnotproducingenoughrevenuetomeetbasichighwayneedsnorenoughtoprovidethefederalmatchforpublictransitoperatingdeficits,Amtrakshortfalls,oranyofthemasstransit"newstarts."ThegastaxshortfallwascoveredoverinMAP-21byrevenuefromtheLeakingUndergroundStorageTankfundandgeneralrevenuefunds.Nowthatweareheadingtothegeneralfundfiscalcliff,everythinginMAP-21issubjecttothesameproportionalcuts.
Thefederalgastaxpergallonhasnotchangedsince1996,eventhoughthecostpertonofasphalthasrisenseveraltimesover.It'snotjustthefossil-fuelrelatedconstructionandmaintenancecostsortheimprovedfuelefficiencyofvehicles.Americansarejustnotdrivingasmuch.(Peoplewhodon'thavejobsdon'tdrivetowork.)Thiscouldstarttohitasearlyas2014.Theconsequencesofpeakoilaregoingtoemergeinmanydifferentareasbutmostnoticeablyintransportation.
DFT-Yep.ItwillbeinterestingtoseehowPresidentObamahandlessuchmatterssincehisreelectionisn'tafactor.GrantedtheDandRpartieshavetheirownagendasbutthispresident(likeallothersIMHO)willfocusonhis"legacy".IMHOanypersonwhoacquiresthePOTUSmusthaveastrongegothatmightpushhisagendaintoareasneitherpartystrongelysupports.Andthatcouldbegoodforthecountry.
ROCKMAN,inalllikelihood,Obamadoesn'tknowyouandyoudon'tknowObamaandhisgang.
Someofyouappeartobespeakingsanelyaboutorwithinthecontextsofaninsaneculture.There'snorealdemocracy,andit'sthereceivingendofforceoragunpointedatyouifyoudon'tdowhatObama'sgangtellsyouto,likepayyourtaxes.
Ireallywishsomeofthisnarrativewouldshift."We"areostensiblyoftenhavingcasualconversationsaboutorsurroundingadisastroussystemasifitbenignlyworks,ratherthandiscussing,moreoftenatleast,abouthowtogetoutfromunderit...
...Hostagesatgunpointonarunawaytraincalmlydiscussingitsfuelasifthere'snohostages,norunawaytrain,and/ornogunpoint.Isthisanaccurateassessment/metaphor
Globalizedgroupthink
Atyourapparentage,shouldweexpectmorefromyou,wiseelder
Attheveryleast,wehaveadesperatefuture.Ourchildrenmayneverbelievethatwehadsurplusfood.Itismainlybecauseofutterlyridiculousthings.TheentireoutputofatomicpowerintheUnitedStatesisexactlyequivalenttotherequirementsoftheclothes-dryingmachines...
Nowallofthis,includingtheenergyproblem,iswhatwehavetotackleatonce.Itcanbedone...Itispossibletomakerestitution.Wemightaswellbetryingtodosomethingaboutitasnot.Wewillnevergetanywhereifwedon'tdoanything.Thegreattemptation...istogathermoreevidence.Imean,doweneedanymoreevidenceOrisittimetoceasetakingevidenceandtostartremedialactionontheevidencealreadyinIn1950,itwastimetostarttakingevidenceandstartremedialaction.Butthetemptationisalwaystogathermoreevidence.Toomanypeoplewastetheirlivesgatheringevidence.Moreover,aswegetmoreevidence,weseethatthingsareworsethantheyhadappearedtobe...~BillMollison
@TOP-FirstMember,
fromyourbillMollisonquote
TheentireoutputofatomicpowerintheUnitedStatesisexactlyequivalenttotherequirementsoftheclothes-dryingmachines...
Ifyouaskmeitisstillanaberrationthat~10%ofthenuclearenergyisusedtodryclothesthatotherwisewoulddrythemselveswhenleftalone.But10%isclosertotherealnumberthan100%.
Butthose(labeled)curvesshowGOMtobedowntozerosince1980,andAlaskasince2000-bothclearlyfalse.SoIwonder,towhatextentisthisabottom-upsummationofknownproductioncurves,vs.atop-downcurve-fittingexercise,tryingtodecomposetheactualproductionintoasumofHubberttypecurves,andthentryingtolabeltheresultingindividualcurvesaftersomethingintherealworld
vt-Ijusttookthosecurvesasmorediagramatic.IthinkevensomeoftheETexaswellsareproducingbutjustverymuch.ForinstancemanyofthewellsdrilledinTexas50+yearsarestillproducing.LikewisemanyoftheBakkenwellswillstillbeproducinglongafterthatcurvegoestozero.
Iamveryinterestedtoknowthebasisofthenarrowpeakduetoshaleoilproduction.HowdidyoudetermineitItlookslikethesmallestgaussianyoucouldfindthatfitthedata.
TherehavebeenmanycommentsheredebatingtheEROIandefficiencyoffuels,whetherbioorconventionalorunconventional.
Whatismissingfromconsiderationistheefficiencyofwhathappensafterthefuelentersthetank.
AnICengineinurbantrafficisarguable10%-20%efficient.RMIsuggestedanaverageof13%afewyearsback.Buyahybridandboostitabit.Butwait,there'smore:
Thesillythingismostlymovingmetal.Thepeoplerepresentmaybe5%-10%ofthetotal.
Multiplyingthetwofactors,wediscoverthetransportationsystemweholdsodearis0.5%-2%efficient,aftertheEROI/EROEI/18%efficiencyofwhateveryoustuffitwith.Whatawaste!!
Nothingtobeproudofnowinthe21stcentury.
Wehavechoices.
Whataretheoddsthatwewillconvert200millionenginecarstoelectricrealsoonnowThatisthedifferencebetweendreamingandprobable.GowithwhatcanactuallybeDONEinthenext10years.
CalGuy,
>Whataretheoddsthatwewillconvert...toelectric...
Zero.
Thenumberofvehiclesintheworldtodayisclosertoabillion(700Mcars,300mtrucksandbuses).Peakoilisn'tgoingtospoilthepartyjustfortheUSA.
IhadnoexpectationthatelectriccarswilleverreplaceICEcars.Bythetimewecouldretoolforthat,peakoilwillbeuponus.Furthermore,electricshaveallthesamedrawbacksasregularcars.Theywouldrequirejustasmuchenergyandmaterialstomanufacture(ifnotmore),theywouldproducejustasmuchcongestion,requirejustasmuchspaceinthecitiesalreadychokingonasphalt--whichwillbeinshortsupply,andtheywouldkillthesame1.2Millionpeopleayear,forexample.)
Luckilytherearealternativestotheprivatecarwhichinurbansettingswillfunctionfarbetterthanthecar--anddosowith10%asmanyvehicles.CheckthelinkIpostedaboveifyoucare.Idon'texpecteverynationtochange...onlythoseinterestedinhavingafuture.
Ourotheroptionistokeepproducingcarsinamadracetothebottom(ofthebarrel).Aslongastheykeepproducingcars,theUSAwillnotbedreaming.Theywillbeturningyour"probable"intoanightmare:unprecedentedshortagesacrosstheboard.