Oilpricewarwilldomoreharmthangood

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EmployeesoperateadrillingrigattheDaqingOilfieldinHeilongjiangprovince.[Photo/Xinhua]

Editor'snote:Oilpricesslidmorethan30percentovertheweekend,partlyduetothedifferencesbetweenSaudiArabiaandRussiaovercuttingproduction.ThesteepestdeclineinoilpricessincetheGulfWarin1991wasfollowedbyaroutonglobalstockmarkets,whichforcedtheUSstockmarkettohalttradingfor15minutesonMonday.ManyremainworrieddespiteareboundinoilpriceonTuesday.ThreeexpertssharetheirviewsonthedramaticdropinoilpricesfuturepricemovementswithChinaDaily'sLiuJianna.Excerptsfollow:

Lowpricestohurtalloilproducers

OilpriceshaveslumpedmainlybecauseoftheincreasinglydimglobalgrowthprospectsduetothenovelcoronavirusoutbreakandthefailedtalksbetweentheOrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountriesandnon-OPECexporters,especiallyRussia,tocutoutputtostabilizeprices.NowthatSaudiArabiahasdecidedtoincreaseproduction,thereisboundtobesurfeitsupply,whichcouldfurtherreduceoilprices.

Russiadidn'tagreetoSaudiArabia'sproposaltocutoutputbecause,ontheonehand,itfearsthatsuchamovewouldfurtherdecreaseitsoilrevenue,andontheother,ithopestorestraintheUSshaleoilandgasindustry'sdevelopment.

Assuch,oilpricescouldslidebelow$20abarrelintheshortterm.ButtheymayreboundinJunebywhenChinaislikelytoresumealmostnormalproductionandthecoronavirusoutbreakinEuropeisexpectedtoreachtheinflectionpoint.

LowoilpriceswouldsqueezetheUSshaleoilandgasindustry,whichinturnwillinfluenceglobaloilpricesandhelpstrikeanewbalanceinsupplyanddemand.AsforRussia,loweroilpriceswillreduceitsoverallrevenue,whichcouldcausepoliticalandsocialinstability.Therefore,loweroilpriceswoulddonogoodtoRussia,SaudiArabiaortheUnitedStates.SothekeyishowlongMoscowcancopewithlowoilprices.XiaYishan,aresearcherattheChinaInstituteofInternationalStudies

OilmarketmaystabilizeinJune

ThisMarch9,2020filephotoshowsamanwearingaprotectivefacemaskagainstthebackgroundofNahrBinUmaroilfield,whereflamesemergefromflarestacks.[Photo/Agencies]

Ifoilpricescouldnotbemaintainedatabout$50,itwouldbewiseofSaudiArabiatodecidetorampupitsoiloutputandofferdiscountstobuyersinEuropeandtheUSbecausedespiteitsmove,oilpriceswouldeventuallyrecoverbecauseofalikelynewbalanceindemandandsupply.

Besides,withaverylowproductioncostthatrangesfrom$5to$10abarrelandasizablecoffer,Riyadhcanaffordtoengageinapricewarforlongthroughsmallprofitsbutfastturnover.Bycontrast,Moscowisnotaswellplacedtofightapricewarduetoitshighproductioncostandlessfinancialresources.Thesignificantdepreciationoftheroubleinrecentdaysshouldgiveanindicationofitseconomicprowess.

ThatthemoveispartofaplottoweakentheUSshaleoilindustryisjustspeculation.EvenifthemovehalvestheUS'shalegasproduction,oilpriceswouldincreaseintheendbecauseofthedecreaseinsupplyresultingintheresumptionofnormalproductionofshalegas.

Mostpossibly,oilpriceswillbouncebackinJune,whenthecoronavirusoutbreakisexpectedtobecontainedleadingtoareboundindemand.LinBoqiang,headoftheChinaInstituteforStudiesinEnergyPolicyatXiamenUniversity.

Afinancialcrisiscan'tberuledout

Theslumpinoilpricesdidn'tcomeasasurprise,giventheovercapacityofmajoroilexportersandthefailureofthetalksbetweenOPECandnon-OPECcountriestocutoilproductionduetogloomyglobalgrowthprospects.ThetalkscollapsedbecauseSaudiArabiawantedtolifttheoilpricesbyreducingoutputwhileRussiadeemeditunnecessarytocutproductiondespitesluggishdemand.

Yet,tosomeextent,bothSaudiArabiaandRussiahopetodealablowtotheUS'shalegasindustrybyhelpingloweroilprices,inordertohaveabiggersayintheglobaloilmarketandgrabmoremarketshare.

ThestockmeltdownincountriesincludingtheUSreflectstheextremelylowgrowthexpectationsmainlyduetothenovelcoronavirusoutbreakandthereductioninoilprices.Soafinancialcrisiscannotberuledoutifthesituationdoesn'timproveandthespillovereffectofdisruptioninChina'ssupplychainaggravates.Ifthishappens,oilpricescouldfurthernosedive.

Furthermore,thepricewarbetweenSaudiArabiaandRussiamaydealadevastatingblowtorelativelysmallcountriesthatdependentirelyonoilexportssuchasLibya,AlgeriaandIraq.Also,theworseningeconomicprospectscouldexacerbatetheanti-governmentprotestsinthesecountries,whichcouldevenleadtoacivilwar.Andthewildfluctuationinoilpricesisexpectedtohaveanimpactontheirsecuritysituation.

ForChina,bothrelativelylowandhighpricesarenotgood.Asamajoroilconsumerandimporter,Chinadoesn'tfaceanoilshortage,andoilpriceshavebeenlowforquitesometime,soanynewreductioninpricesisnotexpectedtoboostgrowth,thoughhighpriceswouldhinderproduction.

AnddespitehurtingUSoilcompanies,loweroilpricescouldpropuptheUSeconomyandhelpmanufacturingunitsto"reshore",thatis,returntotheUS.

SunXia,anassociateresearchfellowattheInstituteofInternationalRelations,ShanghaiAcademyofSocialSciences

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